Turns out that if I awake between the local hours of 5am and 7pm then it is light. Otherwise it is dark.
Problem.
Mismatch.
Turns out, it depends on the "time zone".
Also turns out, depends on whether I'm sleeping inside or outside. In a hotel room or tent. Whether in a tent or in a building room with blinds. Etc. Etc. Each devil-in-the-details helps refine the case even further. But the "bet" to make is always the most "correct" bet to make, based only on the evidence observed to date, at hand. Thus Bayes.
Thus the Turing award.
It's just as perfect and reliable as that. And just as imperfect or vulnerable as that.
Therefore when I awake it is always dark.
Problem. Mismatch.
Turns out that if I awake between the local hours of 5am and 7pm then it is light. Otherwise it is dark. Problem. Mismatch. Turns out, it depends on the "time zone". Also turns out, depends on whether I'm sleeping inside or outside. In a hotel room or tent. Whether in a tent or in a building room with blinds. Etc. Etc. Each devil-in-the-details helps refine the case even further. But the "bet" to make is always the most "correct" bet to make, based only on the evidence observed to date, at hand. Thus Bayes.
Thus the Turing award.
It's just as perfect and reliable as that. And just as imperfect or vulnerable as that.