I've usually decided what I want before I get to the restaurant and then get annoyed when I get there and find it's not on the "lunch" menu or they're out of that. Usually, my choice of restaurant to eat at was made because I was in the mood for something specific, which was influenced by the advertising on the train on the way to work... either way, it had very little to do with the ordering of the menu. Some days, it has nothing to do with the menu at all. If I'm feeling particularly brave, I'll just ask the server to bring me their favourite dish. So I think it's a bit of a reach to say "twice as likely." I'd say it's at best as likely... it totally depends on the chef and their ability to make whatever they've placed on the menu.