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This is an old(ish) essay, but I enjoyed reading it again.

A couple thoughts...

" A parent who set an example of loving their work might help their kids more than an expensive house. [3]"

I wish it were a choice between loving my work and an expensive house. Then I could just live in a more modest house and not worry so much about money. The problem is, just living modestly with a family in places like San Francisco, New York, or London takes everything you got and then some. I suppose I don't strictly have to live in SF...

"[3]... Parents move to suburbs to raise their kids in a safe environment, but suburbs are so dull and artificial that by the time they're fifteen the kids are convinced the whole world is boring."

Or worse, they look for trouble to make their lives more exciting. I grew up in SF, and while there was still plenty of risk-seeking behavior (of the bad kind) in high school (inevitably), there was so much that was interesting to get into that other things, like a meth addiction, seemed less interesting. Just anecdotal, but I actually think that moving to a boring suburb won't just convince your kids that the world is safe and boring, it may backfire and give your kids a world that is boring unless they find a way to make it unsafe...



I am the classic example of a boring suburban upbringing resulting in a penchant for the unsafe (I don't really consider myself self-destructive, but everyone else does ;P) But kids are fairly rebellious no matter how they're raised. This is mostly a problem because parents hang on to their kids far longer than they should. When puberty hits, kids get rebellious because -wait for it- they're adults! They have a biological imperative to get out into the world and mate!


It's for the best that they are prevented as much as possible from succeeding at this biological imperative (pregnancy) before they have the necessary means and capabilities.


We have evolved in a time that, by the time you could hunt, you were old enough to mate.

Our society is much more complex than our biology expects.


I do have to wonder if children were brought up socially rather than parentally. I find it hard to imagine a 14 year old being an adequate hunter.


14 year olds can be very mature if they are expected to be. Having to hunt to survive can make you learn to do it well very quickly.

Also, clearly you have never lived in the Midwest. Even in some parts of modern day society 14 year old boys are adequate hunters :).


Fair enough. Modern day society has guns and less predators though.


I believe in most hunter/gatherer societies, the hunters hunt in groups with the older hunters training the younger ones.


Best for what or whom? All the first world countries are below replacement rate, except for the United States. We're at replacement rate only because we have fairly heavy immigration.


On average I would expect increased mother and child birth fatalities for younger births and less ability to care for the children.

Teenagers having babies is not the solution to birth rates.


Teenagers having babies is not the solution to birth rates.

Agreed, but I would go further and say falling birth rates aren't a problem at all (unless you can think of something that requires more than 6 billion people to accomplish).


On average, people produce more than they consume. More people is therefore a good for existing people, on the average, because we all get wealthier due to them. (Not to say I'm in favor of teens having babies as a rule, by the way).


On average, people produce more than they consume.

But we don't produce more than we consume of some resources that seem important to our modern way of life (water, oil, etc). And off the top of my head I can't think of any good reason why having more people would bring us closer to making things like fusion a reality (other than by increasing the need).


Well, we won't need fusion for some time; at current wealth-creation rates, fission and solar can keep us well-supplied for a century or more, even without off-planet resources, which are fairly easily available. Water for human needs is not actually very scarce; it's just slightly more expensive than we'd prefer in some locations. Even current oil prices are speeding development of alternatives, and there is a lot of shale oil to help us transition from cheap oil to cheap solar or cheap fission. France has gotten most of its electricity from nuclear fission for decades, and exports power, so it's no longer a question of feasibility -- we know exactly how to solve our energy needs for several (current) lifetimes, and it will cost about what the Iraq war already cost to switch.

Basically, there are no particular shortages of anything that will necessarily be critical; the main thing we need to do to get over the hill we can see coming up is to stop braking so hard on the downslope of this hill. :)


It's a good point but I think what people averagely "produce" is of a different substance from that which they consume.

People consume resources that are largely non-replenishable, or at least are not replenished in a manner strictly related to the number of people. As abstractbill says, people don't produce water. Similarly, more people doesn't typically mean more food either, although it might indirectly through the increased needs of more people leading to more farmers etc.

What people "produce" is generally 'order' or increased labour output. Whether this leads to supporting more people I'm not sure.


"As abstractbill says, people don't produce water."

People can easily produce water in the same sense that they "consume" water (since consumption in this case merely means to pollute a little bit, and cleaning water only requires energy and physical plant).

If you use prices as a proxy for measurements of how much we have available, it's clear that the vast majority of the resources we use are, in practical terms, more plentiful now than a century ago, and given that we can see how to switch to more plentiful resources still, I don't see that trend stopping for at least a century or two, at current rates. Even if our technology didn't improve fundamentally past what we know how to do now, we'd have at least a century before we had to go get more resources elsewhere, and we already know how to do that (though we'll need a lot more engineering to actually do it, of course). Meanwhile, the more people there are, the more engineers and innovators there are. If we don't get hit by an asteroid or literally destroy ourselves, the future is pretty damn bright. :)


France has a 2.0 TFR, which is just barely sub replacement and it's been trending upwards since the early 80's. The UK's is 1.94. Both of these countries have heavy net immigration, so they're doing fine.


Yes, all kids who grow up in suburbs turn to drugs and wild women because they are convinced the whole world is boring. I really enjoyed the essay but making sweeping generalizations about kids raised in the suburbs is ridiculous. Also, it's not as if the suburbs don't have things like computers or theater or whatever else it is about large, urban cities that make them so much more interesting.

Whenever you see someone writing sweeping generalizations about rural or suburban life, you can bet that person is parroting things they heard or assume to be true from their wonderfully urbane life.


My experience has been that the suburbs were dull, allowing me to get really great at programming.

But even better, when I had the opportunity to move to big cities, they were even more fantastic and exciting because I was from suburbs. I can't imagine growing up in a city and getting bored with it, before I'm even old enough to take full advantage of life there!


Seconded, heavily - and also the repost, for being just what I needed to read this morning.




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