What about comparing mainland and Taiwan? I don't think there exists an obvious conclusion from this comparison if you look at status quo. If you are judging based on the situation before 2000s, I agree with you that there is an obvious conclusion.
Of course they are, Taiwan is a small country that is supported by the only superpower left. (another example of such a country: Israel)
Where do you think that the economic development of Taiwan would be if it wasn't backed by the US? And where do you think they will be in 20 years, with China constantly rising in power and influence.
I don't think it's controversial to say that they'll probably be part of China, considering that there is even political support for that in Taiwan.
