You can easily find out all the details you want if you had cared to do your own research from the links/data that i had given you using your favourite search engine+AI chatbot. Instead you are just repeating yourself and expecting to be spoon fed. Moreover you are just spouting your own fanciful opinions ("protection racket"/"oil prices collapse" etc. really?) which have no bearing on reality.
However, for your edification;
The wikipedia page for ADCOP i had given above, lists a whole set of links from where you can get more info. and data. One main source is the website of ADNOC (https://www.adnoc.ae/) who owns/operates ADCOP. The UAE has been calling in loans (eg. $3.5billion from Pakistan), asking the US for money (links given above) etc. all towards having enough to ramp up production to 5 million bpd by 2027. The defence cooperation between the UAE and US is longstanding, with the recent war merely ramping it up. The OPEC/OPEC+ is just a cartel which should have been broken up long ago.
The increase in production capacity is irrelevant if you don't have a way to export the said production.
My question was specifically about the increase in the pipeline's capacity. Because your statement "As pointed out above Hormuz is being bypassed with ADCOP's capacity being ramped up." does not make sense otherwise.
Chatgpt tell me this this:
Short term: increase ADCOP from ~1.5 → ~1.8–2.0 mb/d (confirmed and achievable)
Medium term: expand storage and export infrastructure at Fujairah
Long term: build additional pipelines/corridors alongside ADCOP
Short term is too small.
Medium term does not help with the throughput, just better buffering.
And the long term is, well, long term (= many, many years).
Why could something that might happen many years in the future force the Iran to open Hormuz now?
The thing is, 5-10 years from now the importance of oil will be greatly diminished, as this oil shock will result in much greater push for decarbonisation than all climate summits combined (and the technology -- mostly solar and long distance DC lines - is essentially ready, at a reasonable cost). The gulf states see this, so I am not 100% sure all those pushes for extra pipelines will come to fruition, once the Iran war cools down.
You simply are not understanding my comments nor reading the provided informative links.
There are three things to consider viz. 1) Production Capacity i.e. new wells/sources 2) Pipeline Capacity i.e. pipeline bandwidth and no. of pipelines 3) Storage Capacity i.e both at terminal/port and distributed worldwide.
The Iran/Strait of Hormuz problem was foreseen long ago and the UAE specifically has been working on all three of the above. ADCOP construction was started March 2008, completed March 2011 and operational in June 2012. That gives you an idea of how fast things moved.
The last link about infra above lists some possible ways to increase pipeline capacity which in the case of UAE is actually Short/Medium term (easily within 5 years) viz;
... as well as enhancements or parallel lines to the UAE’s ADCOP pipeline to Fujairah,” said Kpler oil analyst Grabenwöger ... In terms of timing, the UAE probably has the most flexibility to move relatively quickly on incremental projects ...
There is also talk of extending ADCOP to the nearby Omani port of Duqm.
Conlusion:
“Five years from now, the Persian Gulf will have far better bypass options than it does today. No matter what the US and Iran agree over the future of Hormuz, the strait’s status will change. But the waterway will never be as critical to the global economy as it was when the fighting started six weeks ago,” Blas wrote.
> The thing is, 5-10 years from now the importance of oil will be greatly diminished
This line tells me you have no idea of the Petroleum industry and its importance to the modern world. Our dependence on Oil will not go away in the next 50 years nor even 100 years. As an example, look up "Naptha shortage" to understand how vital the byproducts of crude oil refining/distillation are to our modern industries. There are over 6000 petrochemicals ! (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrochemical) Renewables only help with alternative energy sources, and given the way we have built our modern industries around petroleum they cannot meet all our needs. They can bring down our reliance on Oil but it is very longterm.
You yourself said "five year from now, there will be far better bypass options". That is very, very long term for what is now going on with Hormuz.
Yes, petrochemicals have many, many applications. But those are not in millions barrels per day, that volume is driven primarily by transportation, that can (and is, currently) being replaced by electric.
You still are not reading any of the articles i have linked to nor understanding them.
I did not say "five year from now, there will be far better bypass options"; that is the expert being quoted in the last linked article above. If you had read that you would know he was talking about the situation as a whole i.e. involving Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE and other gulf countries all of whom are looking at ways to bypass Hormuz once and for all. Of these Saudi Arabia and UAE are the most ahead now and that is why UAE left OPEC to chart its own course since the others are lagging behind. Five years is definitely not long term but very aggressive for all gulf countries to setup infrastructure to bypass Hormuz. UAE is ahead of the game (with ADCOP since 2012) and it can easily setup its parallel lines in the next couple of years.
Again, i recommend you actually do some research on renewables vs. petroleum needs. Most transportation which can use electric is small-scale (eg. cars) but aviation/shipping etc. need Oil for the foreseeable future. What is being done with renewables is to control pollution/greenhouse-effects (essential) and lower dependence on Oil (financial/geopolitical reasons). I have already pointed out the need for Petrochemicals. If you do some research on the share of renewable energy sources in some of the world's biggest economies (specifically China and India) you will see that it is still very small considering their current/future needs. Renewables have a long way to go before they can actually make a dent in the global Oil needs.
Your main point is long-term plans of UAE to increase its production and to build up its ability to bypass Hormuz.
My main point is that in the short-term (say before 2030), UAE has no way to significantly increase its capability to bypass Hormuz, so to make effective use of the increase of its production, it is still dependent on Hormuz.
To quote from few posts above:
Me: 1) The pipeline to Fujairah has capacity of 1.5m barrels per day, i.e. less than half of UAE's current oil production. They still need Hormuz badly.
You: Not quite. ADCOP was carrying 50% of UAE production (1.5-1.8 million bpd) and is being ramped up significantly.
When pressed about 'being ramped up significantly', you pointed to sources about the production being ramped up significantly and build-up of port and storage facilities at Fujeira, and about plans to build a parallel pipeline in the future. That is not 'pipeline capacity being ramped up significantly', that is 'there are plans to increase the pipeline capacity'.
Perhaps misunderstanding.
Anyway, I do not really understand your pumping-up UAE future. The war has severely disturbed their non-oil income and continued regional instability would not bode well for their future (rich people do not like unsafe places).
Their recall of Pakistan's line of credit, intention to leave OPEC and their super-hostile stance to Iran do not make them friends in the region. And relying on USA/Israel for security/help is only for fools.
Your comment(s) are a perfect example of Trevanian's quote "Obtuseness was its own defense".
We are not talking past each other; You are simply trying to play "gotcha" games which i had to refute. I should also note that you have provided no sources of any kind.
I have already pointed out that UAE's output before the war was in the region of 2.9-3.5 bpd (this is variable OPEC cap) with ADCOP carrying 1.5-1.8 bpd. A little math will tell you that ADCOP was carrying between 43% and 62% of the cap and so i had mentioned a approximate mean of 50%. I have seen reports which mentioned that sometimes it fluctuated between 32% and 66% (now even more higher) based on OPEC caps/Hormuz situation.
I have also pointed out that ADCOP was constructed within 5 years and UAE has been working on Hormuz bypass options for well over a decade. Parallel pipelines would clearly not take as much time and we should easily see it by 2027/2028 since everything is being accelerated.
UAE is being a responsible "world citizen" when it comes to the all essential Oil economy and hence i do not appreciate FUD being spewed when actual facts are easily available.
Your last para are your fanciful opinions and have zero validity. The Iran conflict was simply a matter of "when" which just came to fruition now. As pointed out earlier, OPEC countries themselves were working on Hormuz bypass options for more than a decade. Iran has no friends in the Gulf region and hence UAE is fine; and whether you like it or not US/Israel are the only guarantors of security in the Gulf.
Again, both your understanding and logic are flawed.
Israel/USA did not attack Iran out-of-the-blue for no reason. It was because of Iran's troublesome actions over past many decades that its neighbours decided to align with US/Israel for protection.
Your use of fanciful terms like "protection racket" exposes your cluelessness of the subject i.e. the centrality of Oil to the world economy and stability.
Finally, your last line is a silly one with no bearing to reality or this discussion. As i said, i do not like FUD/ignorance being spread on important topics.
You can 'justify' the actions of Israel and USA, but in the same way Iran and others can 'justify' their actions.
The fact is that USA has attacked Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, bombed Yemen and Syria. Add to that Israel's actions and the picture is rather clear.
The 'justification' for a war against Iran is absurd - it would have had a bit of standing, if it had a chance to lead to stability in the region. However, it was absolutely clear to anybody who has at least a bit of understanding in regional and military matters that it will lead to major regional destruction and destabilization. And it did. And is still going on, with no end in sight. The end result is exactly opposite to the stated aims, and it has been rather obvious from the beginning. Yet, you stall parrot this absurd narrative.
If I tell you that it is in your best interest to pay me for stuff that is going to protect you, and that I am going to settle in a room of your house to protect you from your neighbour. And then from that room I shoot at your neighbour, which provokes him to burn your house, which I have no way of stopping. Did I provide you security? Or you just paid a protection racket and got a burning house anyway?
The last line was there, because I cannot imagine any other reason why would you repeatedly parrot obviously false narrative.
This is a different discussion from the original we started with i.e. your lack of knowledge of Oil economy, its importance to the world and the UAE's role in that.
If you want a discussion on this topic open a new thread (instead of hiding here) have everybody engage and see what you get. You will be laughed out of the thread.
With every comment of yours, your cluelessness about Oil Economy, Global Geopolitics, Military Matters, Islamic Fundamentalism etc. all relating to the Middle East (ME) countries becomes more and more apparent.
What has happened to the ME countries after WWII is a result of their own misguided fixation on the destruction of Israel. Instead of coexisting like North Korea/South Korea, China/Taiwan, India/Pakistan etc. the fundamentalists in the ME countries ruined themselves and the Palestinian cause. Israel had offered a two-state solution for the Palestine problem many times, but every time the ME countries scuttled it thus making the ME wars inevitable.
The US (the sole superpower) being Israel's ally and security guarantor meant that it will safeguard Israel by taking out its stated enemies which is what happened. Any collateral damage to world/oil economy etc. were managed and stabilized. The rest of the world does not care about the fate of the ME countries as long as their Oil needs are met. This is "Realpolitik" at play and is how geopolitics works.
Hence now enlightened countries like UAE/Qatar/Oman/etc. have moved away from past policies and are charting their own independent courses. This is also why Saudi Arabia is fast-tracking its reforms to modernity.
I can provide you with links to a dozen books/papers elaborating the above but i fear it will all be wasted given your breathtaking ignorance and unwillingness to learn. You seem to live in a fantasy world of your own making with no relevance to reality and how the world actually works.
I bow to your grand understanding of Oil Economy, Global Geopolitics, Military Matters etc.
Just somehow can't fathom how (with all your superior understanding) you can utter this nonsense: Any collateral damage to world/oil economy etc. were managed and stabilized.
If you had not noticed, the oil and gas (and fertilizer, and aluminium, and helium) are still barely dripping, not flowing. And the end does not really appear in sight. The damage is definitively not managed and stabilized.
My original point was that UAE raising their production capacity is irrelevant as long as Hormuz is not open, as the bypass pipeline is of limited capacity. The only relevant thing you were able to say (but not substantiate) is that surely UEA will be able to build a parallel pipeline in 2 years. Time will tell.
The "were" in Any collateral damage to world/oil economy etc. were managed and stabilized. refers to past ME conflicts and how eventually they were all managed and stabilized. If you cannot comprehend basic English nothing can be done.
As regards the current conflict, it is still ongoing and so the situation is in flux. But what can be said is that the effects so far have been muted than what was anticipated. Here is a detailed analysis; but the nuances need some thought which might be beyond you - The Weirdest Aspect of the Iran War That Has Oil Experts Scratching Their Heads - https://medium.com/newsarticulated/the-weirdest-aspect-of-th...
Your original point (if there was any) had been shown to be clueless with simple math (ADCOP capacity as a percentage of OPEC cap) and geography (bypassing Hormuz). The previously linked articles detailed massive investments by gulf countries to build infrastructure to bypass Hormuz starting decades ago with the current situation accelerating it all.
It is only your obtuseness/ego which is refusing to accept plain facts. Reminds me of a quote by Poe - "Stupidity is a talent for misconception."
You have shown nothing to disprove my original point, just throwing irrelevant or wrong statements at the wall.
Massive investments by gulf countries to build infrastructure to bypass Hormuz starting decades ago ... and still nothing much to show up for that. The math is simple: despite those massive long term investments, the total capacity to bypass Hormuz is still a small fraction of what usually went through there. You provided only hand-wawing when pressed that it will take many years to raise that bypass capacity.
To say nothing about extreme vulnerability of those pipelines and their pumping stations ... the only solution is peace in the region, and not 'peace through strength' - we are witnessing now where that leads to.
It is incredible how well your last statement fits you.
Your comments take the cake for obtuseness, lack of comprehension and lack of reasoning. You are just engaging in silly echolalia.
I had provided many sources to show how things are and how they are developing. The sources to do with infrastructure even shows which all countries (there are two) had been bypassing Hormuz for a while now with their alternative pipelines. It also showed the level of investments going on to accelerate their developments. And yet you are engaging in childish "nah, nah, nah" behaviour.
I can only shake my head bemusedly being reminded of the truism of Einstein's quote - "Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe".
Gulf leaders, meanwhile, are moving ahead with plans that will allow more of their crude oil to bypass the strait entirely and help to secure exports in the long term.
Earlier this month, the Financial Times reported that Saudi Arabia, the UAE and others were actively considering new oil pipelines to run parallel with existing structures, along with expanded export terminals on alternative coastlines."
the important part: 'actively considering', not even starting to build, just considering
"Saudi Arabia, UAE need to 'double' pipeline capacity"
I am well aware of the two existing pipelines, how long it took to actually build them, and how limited their capacity is compared to the actual need if Hormuz is closed. Yet, you still can't comprehend that wishful thinking about the future does not change the current dire situation.
That's why we talk past each other: You are talking about optimal future you pretend will inevitably happen very, very soon. I am talking about the reality here and now.
Again this nonsense; Don't selectively quote from one source which is dishonest.
That link and the other sources i had provided contain more data which you are intentionally obfuscating.
There are already a few existing bypass pipelines and older ones are being recommissioned in addition to planned new ones. For your edification, here is a short reuters note on existing and proposed (does not list all) pipelines bypassing Hormuz - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/alternative-routes-m...
Finally, note that capacities of existing pipelines can also be increased by using techniques like "Drag Reducing Agents" (DRA) amongst others.
How fortuitous of you to provide me with more ammo to prove my point. :-)
All the 'possible alternative routes' remain in 'conceptual' stage.
The east/west and Fujeirah pipelines are operational, and, as discussed before, insufficient. That was my whole point (especially w.r.t. to UAE).
The KIRKUK-CEYHAN pipeline is middling (170k barrels/day, up to 250k) and does not help UAE at all.
The Goreh-Jask pipeline is in IRAN! (an not really operational), does not help UAE at all.
Don't you read with comprehension? Don't you see that this is another irrelevant reference that does not address my point at all?
Nice attempt to make a sneaky about-turn! But you cannot appropriate my points as yours since the evidence is right there.
> That was my whole point (especially w.r.t. to UAE).
BS. Your point was nothing but just arguing for the sake of it. No sources, no idea of absolute vs. relative output, no idea of what exists today, no idea of technologies which can increase output within the existing pipeline (do you even know what DRA is?), no idea of the scale of investment for infrastructure building (since last 10 years!) etc. etc.
Repeating points from my sources does not mean you understand them. Your obtuseness and lack of comprehension is on full display here since in the last comment i actually gave the source for all possible Hormuz bypasses by gulf countries so far. The exact phrase i used was; here is a short reuters note on existing and proposed (does not list all) pipelines bypassing Hormuz. This was pointing to the entire region. Note that the previous sources had also shown these in their maps. You can't even understand when i am talking about the gulf region as a whole vs when i am talking about UAE specific. This is the very definition of obtuseness.
However, for your edification;
The wikipedia page for ADCOP i had given above, lists a whole set of links from where you can get more info. and data. One main source is the website of ADNOC (https://www.adnoc.ae/) who owns/operates ADCOP. The UAE has been calling in loans (eg. $3.5billion from Pakistan), asking the US for money (links given above) etc. all towards having enough to ramp up production to 5 million bpd by 2027. The defence cooperation between the UAE and US is longstanding, with the recent war merely ramping it up. The OPEC/OPEC+ is just a cartel which should have been broken up long ago.
The UAE’s Energy Playbook Is Paying Off Amid Global Turmoil - https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-UAEs-Energy-Playbo...
UAE To Hit Its Oil Capacity Increase Sooner Than Expected - https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/UAE-To-Hi...
Will the Iran war end Strait of Hormuz oil supremacy? - https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-strait-of-hormuz-oil-supply-r...
In bid to bypass Hormuz chokepoint, Gulf countries scramble to ramp up infra - https://archive.ph/Xh1aq#selection-669.0-669.76