With these things, it is helpful to place oneself on the other end of the transaction and think how you would price things. When you think about it critically, you notice that it can get pretty sophisticated.
This is true, except that the manufacturers frequently choose to eat the loss by setting the residual unnaturally high. Even Tesla has been doing this lately.
How does leasing save you from depreciation? Surely the company leasing you the car has a good idea of what the depreciation will be, and they want to make money.
Some of the manufacturers put a high residual on the lease because it moves vehicles. They'll presumably be losing money on the deal, eventually. But the nice thing about leasing is that you decide in advance what the depreciation is going to be, so you get to make it a certainty and base your decision on that.
Even then, it is rarely a good economic decision. Its hard to predict which cars will rise in value that much (unless you're spending $800K+ on some invite-only limited-run hypercar). The storage and insurance add up. It'll invariably need repairs after that time, which can cost a fortune on a limited run car. The opportunity cost will be investing that money in the stock market, which is much more likely to 10x your money.
$15k after adjusting for extra $2k added to trade-in (my offer was $15k, but they bumped the trade-in value of my Camry up $2k to compensate since that was better for them then adjusting the price down $2k), and at the end of the year I should qualify for the $4k used EV tax rebate (I have the paperwork), so ideally it's an $11k purchase.
The only time it makes sense to buy an EV is if it's used.
Edit: He bought used.