The "few" who manage to make money in the stock market are the ones who buy when the market is down and sell when it's up. It's as simple as that.
The difficulty is knowing when the market is down enough for you to make money before you're forced out of the market because you need the money.
I don't know if that moment is now, but the pros who work 12 hours on it apparently don't know either. Otherwise they wouldn't be in trouble now.
So, let me ask you a different question. What makes you think that kyro would do worse than the pros who lost entire banks by getting in at the top?
I'm not saying he should put money in the stock market, but humbleness before those awesome pros that he would be up against is not a good reason to stay out.
And by the way, even if you view the market as a zero sum game (which it is not, but that's another debate), you forget one thing: Many pros are forced to sell right now. They are forced to lose because of margin calls, redemptions, minimum capital requirements, etc.
So it's not necessarily the admirable wisdom of the pros you are up against right now. They are on the floor. Their hands are tied. They have no choice but to sell to you knowing it's not to their advantage in the long run.
If you are 100% in cash and don't need the money within the next 2 years and you don't have to meet margin calls, redemptions or capital requirements, you win, no matter how smart you are compared to the pros.
"The "few" who manage to make money in the stock market are the ones who buy when the market is down and sell when it's up."
Not necessarily in that order ;-)
"the pros who work 12 hours on it apparently don't know either. Otherwise they wouldn't be in trouble now."
Not quite true. I was referring to the stock market. The current crisis was not caused by stocks, but my collaterized debt obligations and other arcane financial products which no one knows how to price.
"I'm not saying he should put money in the stock market, but humbleness before those awesome pros that he would be up against is not a good reason to stay out."
I don't like stocks as an investment, so maybe I am biased. I have known so many people who have tried to make a fast buck in the stock market and lost it all, that maybe I am too pessimistic.
It's not my money, so Kyro should do whatever he feels like. However, I think some realism is always desirable. But then, it's just $2000. That's peanuts. It's not like one's entire life will be doomed if one loses $2000, right?
The difficulty is knowing when the market is down enough for you to make money before you're forced out of the market because you need the money.
I don't know if that moment is now, but the pros who work 12 hours on it apparently don't know either. Otherwise they wouldn't be in trouble now.
So, let me ask you a different question. What makes you think that kyro would do worse than the pros who lost entire banks by getting in at the top?
I'm not saying he should put money in the stock market, but humbleness before those awesome pros that he would be up against is not a good reason to stay out.
And by the way, even if you view the market as a zero sum game (which it is not, but that's another debate), you forget one thing: Many pros are forced to sell right now. They are forced to lose because of margin calls, redemptions, minimum capital requirements, etc.
So it's not necessarily the admirable wisdom of the pros you are up against right now. They are on the floor. Their hands are tied. They have no choice but to sell to you knowing it's not to their advantage in the long run.
If you are 100% in cash and don't need the money within the next 2 years and you don't have to meet margin calls, redemptions or capital requirements, you win, no matter how smart you are compared to the pros.