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It's always surprising that most people are that bad at math.

.01 x .8 /(.01 x .8 + (.99 x 9.6 / 100)) ~= 0.0776 or 7.8%



And in particular with probability. It's amazing how difficult it is for people to fake random data.

If you ask half a class to actually perform and record 100 coin flips and half to fake the data, it's almost trivial to guess which is which either by looking for a string of 5-6 heads or tails in a row (which humans almost never have), or by calculating the percentage flips following a heads that are tails (which should be ~50%, but for humans tends to be much higher).


Sure, but we expect doctors (who receive much greater education and compensation than most people) to get it right.


What's alarming and interesting isn't that they have a lot of years of school and miss this, but that interpreting diagnostic tests correctly is a core part of their job and they miss it. How many lives are adversely effected and how many billions are wasted by doctors making inappropriate decisions because they don't know how to interpret data correctly?


A few years ago I read that around 50% of all medicine prescribed in the US is providing zero or less net benefit to the patient. Granted by prescribing something doctors get you out of the office and in a few days most things get better on their own. But a lot was simple misunderstanding on the part of doctors about how helpful a given drug actually was.


In case you want to find your source, I'm guessing it was economist Robin Hanson:

http://www.cato-unbound.org/2007/09/10/robin-hanson/cut-medi...


No, it was specifically talking about prescribed medicine. Granted not the cost of said medicine. Something like this (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/24/health/24placebo.html) but rather reviewing what drugs patents where taking and comparing it to their symptoms.


Around 15% got it right, which is quite consistent with Sturgeon's Law:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sturgeon_law


[deleted]


Do significant digits matter in these sort of probability calculations? Yes, but no more than normal.

.0051 x .8 / (.0051 x .8 + (.99 x .096)) ~= 4.1%

.0149 x .8 / (.0149 x .8 + (.99 x .096)) ~= 11%

But, when dealing with cancer those are about the same as 8% aka I want to double check with more tests not having someone cut me open.

PS: Be it 99.9999 or .0001% doctors only ever know a probability. Which is why they want to "run more tests".




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