Homicide isn't a catastrophic tail risk. War between great powers is. The type of war that comes from revanchism and nationalism and so on. It hasn't happened in the modern era yet because of nukes, but the risk is there, and we had numerous close calls with the Soviet Union.
That's a fallacy, similar to claiming driving in a car is safer than flying in a plane because you're more likely to survive a car crash than a plane crash.
It seems you're attempting to suggest that local sports are less harmless than the Olympics, by somehow equating the latter to an increased risk of apocalyptic nuclear war?
Please provide evidence if you're going to make such an outlandish claim. One could just as easily claim (similarly without evidence) that the Olympics actually reduces the tension between nations and reduces the risk of apocalyptic tail events compared to local sports which provide no such relief of international tensions.
We're straying too far from the point I was trying to make. National identity is plausibly a dangerous thing to hold up as a virtue, irrespective of the comparison to local identity. Russia's invasion of Ukraine, China's designs over Taiwan, WW1, WW2, trade protectionism, closed borders, and so on. These things are not all about national identity, but national identity does play a non-trivial role.
