To be clear - the generators didn't winterize, they "passed" the new ERCOT winterization rules. Texas Monthly briefly addresses this, but the new rules are mostly a checklist of readiness actions designed to ensure that generators can perform in what they consider a 'normal' winter.

Phase 1 at least includes such amazing winterization requirements as, "Attest that you repaired everything that broke last February" and "Inspect your insulation". There are more useful requirements like adding temperature monitoring, wind breaks around components, etc, but there is literally no enforcement mechanism yet so it's all basically on the honor-system for now.

A friend of mine is an engineering manager overseeing winterization of gas generators for a utility company in a southern state. His utility hired a company from Texas to do the winterization. My friend commented to his counterpart at the winterization company that they must be getting a ton of business close to home after what happened last year.

His counterpart said nope—the Texas utility companies are very much treating it as a one-off event, and the winterization company is not seeing an increase in business there.

Are ERCOT inspections and $100,000 daily fines not an enforcement mechanism?

Yes, the fix for cold temperatures are insulation requirements and wind breaks, etc. Not exactly exciting stuff but still correct.

The inspections are only occurring at facilities that voluntarily declared themselves as critical infrastructure... {https://www.texastribune.org/2021/09/28/texas-power-grid-loo...}

If you notice the ERCOT press release, "321/324 facilities" passed inspection. Last February over 1,000 generating units failed, and over 600 of these were gas generators. So 320ish generators passed inspection -- it's unclear how many of those were in the 600 that failed last year or how many total there are in the state (e.g. the 320 that passed could have already been winterized?).

And the daily fines are for "repeat offenders" who don't "remedy within a reasonable period of time" deficiencies that are reported to the commission. It's basically toothless because "reasonable" isn't defined anywhere and it's all at the discretion of the PUC.

Obviously things will be directionally better now, and likely even more so in the future, I just wouldn't want to be in Texas during a cold streak in the next couple years.

Those 324 represent 88% of capacity.

Any fine system has time limits and reasonableness clauses.

I will continue living in Texas, and continue not being very concerned during the winter other than our lack of salt trucks.

A $100,000 daily fine is a pittance compared to the $9000/MWh prices of electricity during the grid failures. Even a small generator could have been making millions during that time.

Perhaps a tiny stick is more motivation than a much larger carrot for operators that were so unsophisticated as to miss that initial carrot, however.

IIRC the article said that producers could exempt themselves by attesting that they weren't prepared to stay operational and paying a $150 filing fee.

The fines will just be passed off to the customers.

TFA explains at length that the power generating facilities are only half the problem. The other half are the gas wells and pipelines themselves. Fully winterized gas plants still can't make electricity if they can't get any gas. But the gas industry profited handsomely from the crisis, and it's very powerful in Texas. They successfully fought back a winterizing requirement for themselves.

Yep - another huge issue. None of the winterization requirements have been applied to the wells/pipelines yet: https://www.kut.org/energy-environment/2021-11-18/as-power-p...

TFC applies to the gas wells/pipelines, as explained in detail. "Gas generators" in ERCOT terminology are not "generators run by gas", they are "producers of gas".

88% of gas producers by volume are winterized.

Macquarie Bank made an absolute killing

> Nearly all of Texas' electric generation units and transmission facilities have passed the state's new winterization rules

That is very slippery language and the rest of the Yahoo/Reuters article reads like a puff piece.

According to Texas Monthly's investigation, sounds like there's fuckery afoot:

> When Schwertner sent his bill to the House, the legislation also created a committee to map the gas-electric supply chain and determine which gas facilities were critical to the operation of power plants. It authorized the Railroad Commission to use its hundred new employees to inspect and, if necessary, fine gas companies. When the bill returned from the House, though, the language had been revised: only companies “prepared to operate during a weather emergency” were considered critical. This created a troubling loophole. Once the bill had passed, the Railroad Commission was responsible for implementing it, and the agency proposed a rule allowing gas companies to exempt themselves from winterizing simply by paying a $150 filing fee and claiming that a facility wasn’t prepared to stay operational—a dizzying bit of circular reasoning.

Good to know that you can just say you're ineligible to get fined for breaking rules because you weren't going to follow them anyway. Like at least create a government incentive program for being prepared for winter weather other than lost profits during downtime. Why would I, as a power company, want to spend any money on hardening systems against the cold when the only downside is a potential small financial hit? It's like a consumer product recall, how much does it cost to do nothing versus how much does it cost to fix the problem?

They didn't do it after 2011. I don't see why 2021 would be different. These once-a-decade events cost very little compared to winterizing. TX is on year 23 of a deregulated essential utility experiment.

Would still take it over California’s utilities and their costs. How many hundreds of millions can be spent and still have regular blackouts…

I’ve lived in both places and if you think not having power during a week of sub 20 degree temps compares to not having power when it is 40-60 degress outside then I guess we have different ideas of what is better.

There's 48 other states who all have their electricity infrastructure more or less together.

Here in Maine we experience the weather Texas had basically bi-weekly in normal winters (it's been very mild the past few years) and IF your power goes out, it's back on in 4 hours, 20 if it's a particularly bad storm and you are a low priority area. Meanwhile the wind turbines up north will happily keep spinning, and at no point has generation failed.

I wonder how many were considered “winterized” before last year? This article doesn’t tell us what the delta is.

The “cold snap” terminology is also confusing to me. Is Texas expected to have one this year, and if so, at what point does a “cold snap” become part of normal climate?

(I am a Texas native and never experienced anything like last year’s “cold snap”. I was living in California last year, and now I’m worried about another “cold snap” this year)

Having grown up in a place where cold is normal, we still use the term "cold snap" to refer to a sudden drop in the temperature. So, even if it is a somewhat normal occurrence, it can still be called a "cold snap."

I live in Dallas, weather is notoriously hard to predict. However, the big freeze last year gave plenty of warning as a big blob of cold air moving south out of Canada. It was exceptionally severe and long lasting. I’ve lived here through other extreme (for Texas) winter events but that affected a larger portion of the state and longer than any other one I have experienced.

I expect hard freezes and occasional ice during winters in Texas but consecutive days of single digit highs I do not.

The 2021 Feb cold was very tramatic but rare. I live in Austin. Since 1927 we has only gotten into single digits in 5 years: 2021, 1989, 1951, 1949 and 1930. 1949 was coldest at -2 F.

And it wasn't just the cold that was the problem -- it was the cold over 5 days and unprecedented amount of snow. It is rare for Austin to ever see snow.