Define normal in this context. The effects of the 1918 flu pandemic really were region dependent, because some regions were more strict than others (in terms of social distancing, curfews, etc.) and those regions that were more relaxed were affected more heavily (the classic American example is Philadelphia vs St. Louis). We see some evidence of this happening now in places taking stricter measures globally, although the data is too early to say anything conclusive.
> intentionally creating an economic depression of unknown severity
Okay, assuming it's a strict trade-off between 1) no social distancing, economic disruption happening at some point in time in the future, and significantly higher death rates; or, 2) social distancing, economic disruption now, and lower death rates, which is better? This is the reality of the situation -- there will be economic disruption no matter what, and so if we don't attempt to quantity the disruption, the two differences here are social distancing and number of deaths.
> intentionally creating an economic depression of unknown severity
Okay, assuming it's a strict trade-off between 1) no social distancing, economic disruption happening at some point in time in the future, and significantly higher death rates; or, 2) social distancing, economic disruption now, and lower death rates, which is better? This is the reality of the situation -- there will be economic disruption no matter what, and so if we don't attempt to quantity the disruption, the two differences here are social distancing and number of deaths.