Next FOMO bubble is going to be exciting: it's getting much easier to acquire Bitcoin, so the conditions seem ripe for the next bubble to be even wilder. Keep an eye out for next spring, when Bitcoin block reward halves again.
(don't invest more than you're willing to lose entirely it's very risky, but having skin in the game during a bubble is very fun in my experience and will quickly educate you in the emotionality of trading. Dollar cost averaging weekly seems like the best strategy: easy to feel dread at best entry points and greed at best sell points.)
The way I look at it, Bitcoin is a historical experiment happening during our lifetimes and mid-May (the time of halving) will be a very interesting milestone in that experiment.
It could go up or down, but either way, it will be interesting to watch.
Is there any reason for it to go down because of the block halving? I've heard it might be already priced in, so would the lack of a pump be enough to cause a massive drop? Looking at the performance this year, I haven't seen any real patterns, except maybe the time Tether started printing again.
There's a lot of other reasons why it can go down and it wouldn't necessarily go down because of halving. But when a lot of people expect something to go up, it can have reverse effects.
A lot of people have this assumption that it will always go up after a halving, it very well might, but at the current price point, the average person can't even afford a single Bitcoin whereas at previous halving (in 2016) that was still doable (it was on the order of a few hundreds of dollars). At this stage, you would need big investors and probably that's what companies like Bakkt will allow.
Investors appear to like Berkshire Hathaway stock in the $60s and even the $70s more than they liked it at roughly $3500 a share.
Berkshire shareholders approved a 50-for-1 stock split of Berkshire's Class B shares yesterday. Trading began today.
The lower price is seen as an opening for small investors who couldn't afford the old four-figure price tag.
At yesterday's meeting, Warren Buffett told shareholders that the increased trading volume and liquidity for the Class B shares after the split could make it the key driver of Berkshire's market value. "The B may be the tail that wags the dog now."
When the price first went over $1000 some sites switched to using mBTC ... but then the prices went under $1000 and there were complaints about the small numbers being confusing.
You can't win.
> opening for small investors who couldn't afford the old four-figure price tag.
That's an issue that doesn't exist for Bitcoin though-- you can purchase FAR less than one bitcoin at a time.
The problem is fragmentation, this would require upgrading thousands of apps in close proximity to avoid consumer confusion when decimal places switch across platforms
Because it's expected to go up, there are probably some people waiting to sell until then. We can probably expect increased sales volume to some extent, but hard to say whether that will move price up or down.
Do you see what you've become? You're excited about people FOMO'ing into a risky investment (that you happen to hold). You have become the bad actor in this scenario, waiting for new people to hand over their money.
Pick a dollar amount and (buy|sell) that amount of Bitcoin every week on the same day at same time.
By making a 'dumb' plan, you remove the enticement to try and time the market.
Perhaps even more than wall street markets, it's hard to day trade Bitcoin successfully: most of the advice you'll read is by people who are either lying, exaggerating or got lucky. The major issue is that there is a TON of non-public information that is much more relevant to price levels than publicly available information. Many smart players who are using 'insider info' will be able to eat your lunch.
I fully expect that someone has a very accurate model of the quantity of deposits at some exchanges via address linking, and is watching inflows and outflows carefully. I also expect employees of Bitcoin exchanges are passing data to trader friends. Knowing when a big chunk of Bitcoin is about to be tradable on an exchange is a great sell indicator, and USD a great buy indicator.
DCA means you invest the money as you get it. It doesn't mean you identify an existing lump sum and invest it slowly over time. Because you only DCA if you think it'll go up over time. Why would you DCA if you think it will go down over time?
So if you think it will go up over time, then if you have $x for it right now, put it all in. Don't DCA it because if you believe it will go up over time, then you're just missing out on the gains you believe will be there. If you're convincing yourself that it'll go down in the next 2 months before it goes up the 4 after that, you're just being too clever trying to predict the future.
DCA is just about what you do with additional money you get in the future, that you don't have yet. Like, if your DCA money is 0.5% of your yearly revenue, then after each paycheck, put that 0.5% of your paycheck into your investment. That's all it is. The idea is that it is to keep you from forgetting about the market and only investing when everyone's talking about it during the highs.
When/if the price goes over 20k again, that's when animal-mode FOMO adrenaline will re-emerge. Even Nouriel Roubini will be buying. At some point, people will genuinely fear they are missing out on the next world currency, even the skeptics. That will either be the best time in the world to sell or the best time to buy, who knows.
(don't invest more than you're willing to lose entirely it's very risky, but having skin in the game during a bubble is very fun in my experience and will quickly educate you in the emotionality of trading. Dollar cost averaging weekly seems like the best strategy: easy to feel dread at best entry points and greed at best sell points.)