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Keep Dreaming.

China has made it a national priority to provide better standard of living to their people then the West.

..With rising salaries, labor unrest, environmental devastation and intellectual property theft, China is no longer an attractive place..

How are these things bad ? China has their own class of capitalists now - they no longer need wall street to finance their projects.

China may have bumpy roadblocks - but at the scale they operate - financially, manpower and political will. It sort of doesn't matter. Its like a elephant worrying about what an ant thinks.

Any issue that china faces - they seem to figure out how to overcome it. In the EU we cannot even figure out how to get our currency right - even though modern finance started here. China made all the right decisions when it comes to Keynesian economics.

And sure they have a lot of debt - but the losers are the banks who are lending them money. Who is going to knock on China's door to ask for their money back ?

China can afford to waste 1 million of their own engineers to just beat Airbus. That is the scale at which they operate. Just like how Stalin was able to screw up so many times.

I have meet a lot of Chinese students - and if they were good at English and didn't grew up with the great firewall. Silicon Valley wouldn't prolly exist. Software is the only industry where I have seen American and Indian be better than the Chinese - but its a very anecdotal observation.

You do not have to do a lot of analysis - just listen to a few episodes of Dan Carlin's hardcore history.

For most of history China dominated economically and technologically. Just because Europeans had better war technology ( due to the fact that europeans were do divided ) were we able to dominate for a few hundred years.

We are going back to what normal looks like.

Edit:

I am not some chinese shill, my personal opinion is china should be punished for crushing other countries through unfair trade practices.

The free market doesn't work if there are companies that have the backing of a state with 1.3 billion people !

China would probably dominate even without the massive financial backing of their state banks. But the aggressive nature of their expansion is worrying.

American's are still protected - you should ask the peripheral countries about the effect of the rise of China to their economies ( Vietnam, etc ) why do you think Obama is trying to push the TPP ?

China also worries me because they are showing that democracy doesn't matter, when it comes to wealth creation.



>China has made it a national priority to provide better standard of living to their people then the West.

this is patently false. the official Chinese government line is that the current western standard of living is not scalable. their reasons include that it is ecologically unsustainable to generate the kind of consumption and waste that the west does. this is not due to their strong sense of ecological stewardship but because they know it will be difficult for them to reach the US' GDP per capita, and they are trying to manage the expectations of their citizens.


The CCP's mandate is completely based on constant improvement of living standard

In Europe and US - if living standard decrease from one generation to the next - the worst thing that can happen is we vote in Donald Trump for 4 years.

In china the situation is much more scary as there are no system in place to channel that anger and frustration in a controlled way. The only direction to move is up.

the CCP of-course realizes that they need to invest heavily in renewable, and that is exactly what they are doing. The expectation will be there - and their govt is dedicated to meeting them - with renewable energy is preferable.


Well they aren't wrong.


"Any issue that china faces - they seem to figure out how to overcome it."

Apart from running a democratic and open society.


It does not seem like an issue to them. At least, not for their industry. Englandof 1700s was not an open and democratic society either, but it lead the industrial revolution.


Very true, but you're overlooking the fact that England of the 1700s was in the 1700s.


History is a pretty local thing. The ideas of democracy and freedom (these are two different, often contradictory things) seem ti be pervasive in Western Europe or North America. This does not mean they are pervasive, or desired, or even understood everywhere in the world, despite the "civilized West"'s attempts at propagating these ideas.

Chinese government has a pretty tight grip on the nation's information sources, and has a very significant political and military power. Democracy has no chance to be exported there, as it was exported e.g. to Iraq and Afghanistan (rather unsuccessfully).

Chinese government makes a lot of efforts to keep the political system of China under control, without Western-style democracy (and probably any other). It also makes a lot of efforts to keep China producing and selling a lot of stuff, and becoming better and better at it. It's rather successful on both accounts.

There are a few examples of countries becoming wild economic successes under quite undemocratic regimes: South Korea and Singapore spring to mind. But both are not Communist (or former Communist, since the Chinese seem to have abolished much of their previous communism). Maybe this is why the didn't look so suspicious to the Western public.


A funny thing is when I was talking to a lot of friends in China recently, while they like america in general, they believe the Chinese system is superior to the western "democracy". Do not get me wrong, they blame the Chinese government for many things rather fiercely at the same time.

I somehow feel like they are overly optimistic but could not find any proof to refute their point (talking about the current US election clearly did not help...). They are mostly upper middle class who worth more than me. So I guess they may be biased? However the taxi drivers seem to have the same view.

An anecdote: none of them want to immigrate (at least to US) and their only major concern seems to be the air quality. Since they can buy everything else from overseas anyway.


>An anecdote: none of them want to immigrate (at least to US)

I think your sample is skewed. Chinese people from all social classes are immigrating to the US at record rates. The US gets about 25% of all Chinese emigrants each year, a number that's been growing not decreasing. China recently overtook Mexico as the top source for new immigrants in the US.

Look at the number of Chinese students, the number of H-1Bs, and the number of Chinese green card applications for evidence of middle class highly educated immigration.

For less educated immigration, visit any Chinese restaurant in any backwater town in the country. You'll find that the front of house is staffed by an endless supply of new immigrants.


My sample is definitely skewed, since it is just like a dozen of upper middle class friends. However, your argument may be flawed as well :)

It is possible that Chinese immigrants are on the rise, but it is not like a Chinese person can easily immigrate to US, legally or not. Comparing the number of Chinese and Mexican is a bit silly, because of the "undocumented".

The number of Chinese students is meaningless as not every student wants or can stay. The number of H-1b may mean something but my feeling is that Chinese are getting less in recent years. Do you have actual data? The green card applications is more direct evidence, but some real data showing the trend would be useful.

Anyway, I think if there is no pacific in the middle and there is no wall at the border. At least 100 million Chinese people would love to move to US...


That only goes to show that for people with money, citizenship becomes a choice and you get a market of countries that are in competition.

Countries compete in many ways and form of government is just one and might not even be the deciding factor.

This might become a problem for China in the long term but I don't think it's certain.


In the end every form of government is democractic, simply because it's not possible to maintain a stable government over a population that is not satisfied to some degree, you get revolutions otherwise and this is how democracy or at least regime changes happen.

Democracy makes sense because governments make mistakes and those need to be dealt with. Democracy is able to deal with that very nicely.

At the moment the Chinese government does a very good job and have the benefit of pretty much everyone else in the world who matters being highly interested in seeing China succeed. As longs that doesn't change - and I find it very hard to imagine a scenario where it does - China won't become democratic.


You have it backwards - they see "a democratic and open society" as a problem they have overcome.


USSR was destroyed by stupid government. I'm not sure about western countries, but democracy might have some tools to prevent stupid presidents to do heavy damage (I'm not sure how exactly, but whatever). So the question is, whether Chinese society was able to build a tools to prevent stupid government to ruin everything. After all, Chinese was terrible poor country not so long ago and for many years. How are they going not to repeat the same mistakes?

Western world believes in democracy (at least some people do), but it's not generally accepted truth. I think that democracy is stupid, though I don't have anything better to offer.


> I'm not sure about western countries, but democracy might have some tools to prevent stupid presidents to do heavy damage

Democracy also self-contains the tools to undo itself, as long as someone can convince the majority that it's not only a good idea, but prudent to do so. That is why the transition from democracy to fascism and outright dictatorship can happen quickly.


That's why militant democracy[1] exists.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streitbare_Demokratie


I think that democracy is stupid, though I don't have anything better to offer

It was Winston Churchill who said that democracy is the worst system of government, apart from every other system that has ever been tried.


I think Culture-style benign dictatorship is a better system than democracy, but hadn't been practised yet. As currently practised, democracy tends towards bureaucracy and short-term thinking (projects small enough to fit in a term).


> As currently practised, democracy tends towards bureaucracy and short-term thinking (projects small enough to fit in a term).

Not to mention that it can devolve into something that's more of a democracy in name only.

Take the upcoming US elections where the choices are, on one hand, a blowhard who wants to build a massive wall to keep out Mexican immigrants, and on the other a corrupt-to-the-core corporate puppet.

This isn't much of a real democracy when parties become so big that more competent people have no chance of running for office without the support of said parties.


That's just the US's voting system in action. Unfortunately, changing a voting system is almost impossible Because the people with the power to change it are the ones that benefit from the status quo. Britain came really close recently with the Liberals though, but I think that was an exceptional situation and the incumbents managed to convince the populace that a more proportional voting system was a waste of money.


And we have yet to see how they plan to: deal with an aging population(due to the 1 kid rule), deal with the health effects of all the air pollution, and clean up their environment. And as their population becomes more tech savvy, and presumably figures out how to bypass the firewall and thus the censorship and propaganda, they might very well have to figure out a democratic and open society.


deal with an aging population(due to the 1 kid rule)

First they gotta deal with the gender imbalance problem - literally 10s of millions of young men for whom there is no possibility of finding a partner, because the one child policy led to many female babies being discarded. Take a bunch of angry young men who see no future for themselves and you get what's happening now in Afghanistan...


good point, tongue in cheek response here:

easy, that's a propaganda problem. tell them the enemy stole our women or something like that :P


They are working on that too, albeit much slower, but they recently started opening up all the historical archives from previously censored eras.


Well, if they made it their priority, it surely will happen.




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